will nigeria’s demand for fuel change after end of subsidies?

president jonathan ambitiously tackled fuel subsidy reform in early january. in doing so, some oil traders were curious to know if fuel consumption patterns would change in nigeria. they wondered that any change in domestic demand could either add or take highly-prized (light + sweet) nigerian crude varieties off the global market. my answer was no, and this paper was helpful in providing evidence for this answer.

modeling gasoline demand with structural breaks: new evidence from nigeria